Politically correct persuasion is at your doorstep, masquerading as a scientific survey.Last year, Science Magazine was shamed into retracting a paper written by a LGBT activist (6/06/15). The activist, Michael Lacour, a doctoral candidate at UCLA, leveraged the name recognition of Donald Green, a Columbia University political scientist, as co-author. When he heard about “irregularities” in Lacour’s survey data, Green later admitted he had not adequately supervised Lacour’s work (Nature). The retraction not only put egg on the face of the AAAS (publisher of Science), but also on all the politically-correct reporters who had celebrated Lacour’s “findings.”Lacour had hired some of his gay friends to canvass houses in a conservative area, seeing if they could persuade them to change their views about gay marriage (12/17/14). As we pointed out at the time, it wasn’t a bad paper simply because of bad record-keeping, but because the whole design of the survey was overtly biased. Lacour was on a campaign to change public attitudes about gay marriage. A neutral scientific paper should have studied the effect of surveys on both views—i.e., seeing if supporters of gay marriage could be persuaded to change their views in favor of traditional marriage. Additionally, survey takers were all hired from Lacour’s gay activist group. A scientific survey should have sought to employ helpers from both positions, or better yet, used survey takers without a strong position. Everything else about the “experiment” was flawed, too, including the lack of adequate control, the lack of objectivity. It was an exercise in advocacy, pure and simple. Science was caught with its pants down, and repented—temporarily. Nature said that the incident created “a stigma that has haunted political science”; it was a “painful episode” one would think would shame researchers from doing it again.Now, however, the Lacour defenders are back with a vengeance, touting new “survey” methods that allegedly prove that people can be “persuaded” to moderate their positions on LGBT “rights.” Once again, the survey takers are tainted with advocacy; success is being measured by the ability to change people’s attitudes toward leftist positions, not equally toward either position on this highly controversial subject facing society. You see it right in Nature‘s coverage: “Door-to-door canvassing reduces transphobia.” No conservative or supporter of traditional gender roles would use that word. Supporters of traditional sex roles are not “phobic” toward LGBT people; in many cases, they love them as individuals and support their rights just as they would for any citizen. They have strongly-held convictions, however, about sex and gender, particularly when it comes to whether men should be allowed to use women’s bathrooms if they declare themselves to feel feminine (whether sincerely or not); must the privacy of girls be sacrificed to the whims of political correctness? (see the latest flap over North Carolina’s law protecting bathroom privacy, and the deceitful coverage in the media about it, discussed by Family Research Council ; Frank Turek shares the conservative position at Townhall.com.)In a democratic society, issues should be decided in the marketplace of ideas by reason and evidence. These days, however, there is a “politically correct” agenda that cannot endure opposition to the LGBT community’s goals, small as the community is (about 3% of the public). People are not allowed to differ from the PC view. The new “survey” technique is being used by confirmed advocates of the LGBT community not to reason with people, but to change them. It’s all the more dangerous when it comes with the imprimatur of science. The Nature article celebrates success in these efforts as “reduced prejudice against transgender people”—but prejudice is uninformed conviction, not reasoned conviction. The article happily quotes a social psychologist who says, “And the bonus is that it has really encouraging results for tolerance and for the rights of transgender people.”The bias in these phrases is disturbing. Transgender people have rights, but little girls have rights of privacy, too. Their rights are being threatened by laws forcing institutions, schools and businesses to ignore very real consequences of letting anyone use the bathroom of their current gender feelings instead of their birth sex. If a burly, bearded man exposes himself in a girl’s bathroom or locker room, causing panic and distress to the girls inside, what about their rights? Should businesses and schools not be allowed to complain about it? Yet when North Carolina passed a common-sense law stating that the state could not force institutions to accommodate the LGBT person (still giving institutions the power to choose their own policies), some corporations and the federal government went ballistic, threatening North Carolina with financial punishment for daring to oppose the LGBT agenda.Regardless of one’s feelings on this issue, it should not be the role of science to advance one view on a highly polarized cultural issue. The Nature article is filled with buzzwords that betray their bias. Try to imagine conservative scientists measuring success in these terms:The canvassers talked to 255 voters about transgender equality, and to another 246 voters about recycling, as a control group.About one in ten voters that were canvassed about transgender discrimination became less prejudiced….Broockman says the magnitude of the change approximates the degree of improvement from 1998 to 2012 in the average opinion of an American towards gay and lesbian people.Broockman plans to extend his work to other issues, such as attitudes about climate change.….Broockman’s designs could be used to test whether attitudes towards undocumented immigrants could be changed.Meanwhile, the transphobia study offers hope that doing so could be worth the effort.Nature‘s reporter Heidi Ledford is not even pretending to be objective with this kind of terminology. Most likely, she is not even aware of it. But the very choice of terms is highly biased, and each position advocated is the leftist position. The phrase “undocumented immigrants,” for instance, shields the reader from whether or not a person has broken the law. The innocuous phrase “climate change” hides the advocacy of punitive measures on economies to correct for what the current consensus thinks humans have done to the planet. The word “equality” conceals the issue of whether a gender-confused person must be allowed to trump the privacy rights of those not so confused, if other methods of accommodation are possible.New Scientist followed suit with its headline, “Re-run of controversial study shows how to cut trans prejudice.” Lacour’s revenge is on. Advocacy groups on the left have grabbed the hammer of science to force their views on the majority. They are refining their methods of scientific brainwashing.For Fleischer, that need not bode ill for canvassing on other topics. It took him seven years to work out the right approach to talk to people about LGBT issues, he says, and he has less experience addressing attitudes toward abortion. It may take time to fine-tune the approach for other sensitive subjects.“Talking to people” is not about engaging in the open marketplace of ideas. The agenda is set in advance. The canvassers are the change agents. The public is the lab rat. The survey questions are fine-tuned for influence in one direction. Success is measured by progress toward the agenda. Ledford quotes Brian Calfano, political scientist at Missouri State, prediction “You’re going to see a lot more of these studies going forward.”We live in dark times. The specter of Soviet “psychopolitics” looms large. Leftists and their “scientific” change agents are driven by their inner conviction that they are smart, and the public is stupid. They are for progress, and everyone else is backward, hindering progress. They have the right views and the right methods to change the world. This kind of utopian mentality has caused untold grief and suffering just within the last century; when will we ever learn?Here’s what you can do. When the canvasser comes to your doorstep, do an experiment on them. See if you can get them to change their views on the propriety of science acting as a change agent for a particular viewpoint. Hey, if it’s fair for them to make you their lab rat, it’s fair to reverse the roles. Every question they ask, notice how it is framed to alter your view, and turn it around to alter theirs. Tell them you are experimenting on them, and you want to publish your results. It will either drive them crazy or (hopefully) make them reconsider what they are doing.If enough conservatives did this, and communicated with each other, we could gather a lot of interesting data about best techniques for deprogramming canvassers, cultists, and other doorbell ringers. Our published results could measure success in terms of ability to open the eyes of the blind, get them off their agenda, and teach them to reason with one another as rational, moral, considerate human beings.Exercise: How would you frame your questions for such an experiment?Warning: If we are too successful at this, the bigots may turn to harsher methods, such as electric shock or torture.(Visited 49 times, 1 visits today)FacebookTwitterPinterestSave分享0
Roger Federer of Switzerland holds the trophy after winning his men’s final singles match against Rafael Nadal of Spain at the Shanghai Masters tennis tournament in Shanghai on October 15, 2017. / AFP PHOTO / Nicolas ASFOURIRoger Federer got one over his old rival Rafael Nadal to win the Shanghai Masters 6-4, 6-3 on Sunday in a showdown between the two best players on the planet.It was a 94th title for the Swiss legend, drawing him level with the great Ivan Lendl, and closes the gap on world number one Nadal at the top of the rankings as the season reaches its conclusion.ADVERTISEMENT In-form Nadal was ahead in their overall record down the years, with 23 wins to Federer’s 14, but he was up against it almost right away. Number two Federer put Nadal under the cosh immediately on the Spaniard’s serve, breaking him in the first game — to roars of approval from the majority inside the arena.FEATURED STORIESSPORTSWATCH: Drones light up sky in final leg of SEA Games torch runSPORTSSEA Games: Philippines picks up 1st win in men’s water poloSPORTSMalditas save PH from shutoutThe 36-year-old Swiss, fondly known as “Cow” in China for his laid-back personality, had started the better and he rattled through his own service game for 2-0.Federer, a 19-time Grand Slam champion who had beaten Nadal in their last four encounters, was in full flow under the Qizhong Tennis Center roof, which was closed because of downpours in Shanghai. Sharapova fights to first title since drugs ban Typhoon Kammuri accelerates, gains strength en route to PH Trending Articles PLAY LIST 00:50Trending Articles00:50Trending Articles00:59Sports venues to be ready in time for SEA Games01:37Protesters burn down Iran consulate in Najaf01:47Panelo casts doubts on Robredo’s drug war ‘discoveries’01:29Police teams find crossbows, bows in HK university01:35Panelo suggests discounted SEA Games tickets for students02:49Robredo: True leaders perform well despite having ‘uninspiring’ boss02:42PH underwater hockey team aims to make waves in SEA Games View comments LATEST STORIES Read Next Kammuri turning to super typhoon less likely but possible — Pagasa Nadal, 31, groaned while lashing many of his shots; Federer was all quiet efficiency.Somewhere in the stadium somebody rattled a cow bell.Federer rapidly made it 4-2 with two booming aces in a row, drawing huge cheers from much of the stadium.In contrast, Nadal — a 16-time Grand Slam winner but who had never won the Shanghai Masters — was laboring through his service games.He went long on a straightforward forehand but powered an ace to make it 4-3 to the Swiss. ADVERTISEMENT Frontrow holds fun run to raise funds for young cancer patients Fire hits houses in Mandaluyong City Nonong Araneta re-elected as PFF president Brace for potentially devastating typhoon approaching PH – NDRRMC There were suggestions that Federer might not be quite as fresh as his old foe, having been pushed to three sets a day earlier in the second semi-final against Juan Martin del Potro.The timeless Federer rubbished that notion as he seared his way to a 5-3 first-set lead.Nadal sent down his fourth ace for 5-4, only for Federer to seal the set with his seventh ace of the match.There was little between the great rivals in the early exchanges of the second set until the pivotal fifth game.Nadal, on a great run of form that won him the US Open and China Open in recent weeks, saved the first break point but could not survive the second one to put Federer in reach of a second Shanghai Masters crown. LOOK: Loisa Andalio, Ronnie Alonte unwind in Amanpulo for 3rd anniversary Don’t miss out on the latest news and information. BSP sees higher prices in November, but expects stronger peso, low rice costs to put up fight MOST READ
TagsTransfersAbout the authorFreddie TaylorShare the loveHave your say Ex-Man Utd boss Mourinho releases statement on Benfica moveby Freddie Taylor10 months agoSend to a friendShare the loveJose Mourinho has confirmed he will not return to management with Benfica. The Portuguese was sacked last month as manager of Manchester United.He said: “I have never been into the game of feeding news stories, but I have no intention of working in Portugal.”I don’t really want to go there but the best way to respect a great club [Benfica] and a great president is to say that I was not approached.”It’s a tremendous honour when you return to a club where you’ve been, but I’m talking to you and I will not talk to anyone else.”I’m not training, I love that I am no longer talked about all the time and the best way to ensure that will remain the case is for me to not talk either.”I want to able to think and prepare for the next step.”
TagsTransfersAbout the authorPaul VegasShare the loveHave your say Stoke boss Nathan Jones accepts he’ll likely lose his jobby Paul Vegas23 days agoSend to a friendShare the loveStoke City boss Nathan Jones has accepted he will likely lose his job this week.Jones was speaking after the Potters lost 1-0 at home to fellow strugglers Huddersfield Town.He admitted: “If I’m not getting the results I expect the inevitable to happen. I’m not concerned. I was concerned after four days of taking the job, but I’m not concerned now.”The league table doesn’t lie after 10 games, we just haven’t been good enough. It’s a wonderful club and the fans and owners have given me lots of patience, but we’ve lost our way and something has to change.”I’ve had nine months to turn things around and, for one reason or another, I’ve not done it. It’s been tough on me and my family, but I just feel sad. It’s a great club but it just hasn’t worked out.”I couldn’t have given it any more, I’ve given it everything I can.”
New Delhi: Pakistan will be judged not by words but on basis of the action it takes to dismantle terror infrastructure on its soil, India said Saturday, asserting that its non-military strike on the JeM terrorist training camp in Balakot achieved its desired objective.External Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Raveesh Kumar said if Pakistan claims to be a ‘naya Pakistan’ (New Pakistan) with a ‘nayi soch’ (new thinking), then it should demonstrate ‘naya’ action (new action) against terror groups operating with impunity from its soil. Also Read – How a psychopath killer hid behind the mask of a devout laity!The MEA’s comments came a day after Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan said he will not allow Pakistani soil to be used for terror directed at other countries. Khan has been saying that a ‘Naya Pakistan’ is embarking on a new journey under his leadership. Kumar said Pakistan has been making identical statements after separate terror attacks and now Islamabad will have to take up the concrete action the international community expected it to take and must rein in terror groups operating from its soil. Also Read – Encounter under way in Pulwama, militant killed”We remain resolute in our determination to persuade the international community of the necessity of compelling Pakistan to move beyond mere words and to show credible, verifiable and sustained actions. We have and we will continue to act with responsibility and maturity,” he said at a media briefing. Kumar said the widespread presence of terrorist camps in Pakistan is public knowledge and repeated requests by India and the international community for Pakistan to take action against such groups has been met with “denial”. “In 2004, the then President of Pakistan had made a solemn public commitment that they would not allow any territory under their control to be used for terrorist activity in any manner,” he said. “But till today, however, Pakistan has failed to take any credible action against Jaish-e-Mohammed and other terrorist organisations, which continue to operate with impunity from Pakistan,” he said, adding Pakistan will be judged not by its words but on the basis of action it takes to dismantle terror infrastructure. Tension between the two nuclear-armed neighbours escalated after the February 14 Pulwama terror attack and subsequent aerial strike by India on a training camp of the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) in Balakot on February 26. Pakistan retaliated the strike next day by unsuccessfully attempting to target Indian military installations. The JeM claimed responsibility for the Pulwama attack. “Our non-military counter terrorism strike of February 26 achieved the intended objective. It has demonstrated our firm resolve to take decisive action against cross-border terrorism,” Kumar said about Balakot strike. He, however, evaded questions on number of casualties in the strike.
Manchester: Manchester City has humiliated Schalke 7-0 to win the Champions League knockout stage tie 10-2 on aggregate and claim a berth in the quarter-finals. Sergio “Kun” Agüero had a brace for the hosts at Manchester’s Etihad Stadium late on Tuesday. Already leading 3-2 after the first leg in Gelsenkirchen, City dominated from the start of the contest and virtually all of the action was in front of visiting goalkeeper Ralf Fährmann. Schalke coach Dominico Tedesco fielded an attack-oriented side, but they struggled to find any gaps in the City defence and left themselves vulnerable. Also Read – Dhoni, Paes spotted playing football togetherCity threatened in the 13th minute, when Kyle Walker’s deep pass found Raheem Sterling, who advanced toward the goal and left the ball for Agüero, whose strike hit the post. Twenty minutes later, City’s Bernardo Silva went down in the area after being brushed by defender Jeffrey Bruma and referee Clement Turpin pointed to the spot. Though the penalty looked soft, Turpin felt no need to consult VAR and Agüero coolly converted in the 35th minute to give City a two-goal overall lead. Also Read – Andy Murray to make Grand Slam return at Australian OpenThe Argentine international needed just three minutes to get his second of the night, taking a pass from Sterling and slipping the ball under Fährmann. With Schalke forced to press forward, City’s Oleksandr Zinchenko got the ball to a wide-open Leroy Sane and the German scored against his former club to make it 3-0 on the night and a daunting 6-2 overall in the 42nd minute. City, despite the more-than-comfortable lead, did not let up in the second half and scored twice in the opening 10 minutes after the re-start. The first, by Sane, was disallowed for an offside. Sterling’s goal in the 56th minute looked set to suffer the same fate until VAR confirmed that all of the attacking players were onside. Even as City slowed the pace, the nightmare continued for Schalke. Bernardo Silva scored from inside the box in the 71st minute, seven minutes before Phil Foden made it 6-0 (9-2) with a great assist from Sane. Gabriel Jesus delivered the final blow with six minutes left. City, the Premier League holders, are headed to the Champions League quarterfinals for the second consecutive year.
New Delhi: An alert guard helped the police nab four people who were allegedly stealing shuttering plates from a farm house in south Delhi’s Fatehpur Beri, police said Wednesday. At around 8 PM on Tuesday, Sanjay Yadav (35) employed as the security guard at Jindal farm in Jonapur heard noises coming from another farm house situated on the opposite side. He found four men loading shuttering plates in a tempo but on seeing him, the men tried to escape from the spot. “But the beat officers who were patrolling the area on a motorcycle apprehended the three men with the help of security guard,” said Vijay Kumar, Deputy Commissioner of Police (south). The fourth person was also apprehended after he was found hiding near the tempo. Shuttering plates are made using best quality metals and is basically used for supporting items for building construction slab, canopy, beam among others. The accused have been identified as Arjun (21), Deepak (18), Satish (19) and Narayan (23), all residents of ‘jhuggies’ in Jonapur, police said. A case was registered, the officer said. Large iron shuttering plate, a tempo, water pumping motor, ceiling and exhaust fan and air condition covers were also recovered from their possession.
New Delhi: A day after Jet Airways suspended all its flights after running out of money, lenders to the carrier Thursday said they were “reasonably hopeful” that bidding process for the airline will end successfully. Lenders led by the State Bank of India had declined to extend more funds to Jet, forcing it to suspend all its flights. “The lenders after due deliberations decided that the best way forward for the survival of Jet Airways is to get the binding bids from potential investors who have expressed EOI (Expression of Interest) and have been issued bid documents on April 16,” a statement by lenders said. A consortium of 26 lenders led by the SBI, with 51 per cent stake in the debt-trapped airline, has invited bids from potential suitors. Also Read – Thermal coal import may surpass 200 MT this fiscal”Lenders are reasonably hopeful that the bid process is likely to be successful in determining the fair value of the enterprise in a transparent manner,” it said. Banks on Wednesday rejected an immediate Rs 400 crore demand of Jet Airways, compelling it to ground operations. Jet had been, over the last few months, on a decline as competition from budget airlines hurt its profitability and led to a debt pile. It reported losses for four straight quarters despite sales holding up. Also Read – Food grain output seen at 140.57 mt in current fiscal on monsoon boostAt its peak, Jet operated 123 planes and over 600 daily flights. It was flying just seven planes on Tuesday. Its chief executive officer Vinay Dube on Wednesday wrote an email to airlines’ passengers saying “with deep sadness and with a heavy heart that we would like to share with you that, effective immediately, Jet Airways will be suspending all its domestic and international operations”. “Tuesday night, we were informed by SBI, on behalf of the consortium of Indian lenders, that they are unable to consider our request for interim funding. Since no emergency funding from the lenders or any other source of funding was forthcoming, it would therefore not have been possible for us to pay for fuel or other critical services to keep the operations going,” he wrote. He said the airline had over the last several weeks and months tried “every means possible” to seek funding, both interim as well as long term funding, to keep our operations going. “Unfortunately, despite the very best of our efforts, we have been left with no other choice today”. “A decision like this is never easy to make, but without the interim funding, which we have been repeatedly requesting for, we are simply unable to conduct flight operations in a manner that delivers to the very reasonable expectations of our guests, employees, partners and service providers,” he wrote. “After 25 years of sharing the Joy of Flying with Indian and international guests, Jet Airways and its Board of Directors have been forced to take this extreme measure, as prolonged and sustained efforts with lenders and authorities to ensure the sustainability of the airline did not yield the desired results.” He, however, said the future provides new hope and opportunity as India is better off with a flying Jet Airways. “We will now await the bid finalization process by SBI and the consortium of Indian lenders and will continue to support the bid process initiated by the lenders,” he added.
Srinagar: There Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) terrorists, involved in Friday’s attack on a police post here, have been arrested, police said here on Sunday.”We have arrested three persons so far in connection with the Chanapora attack case,” senior superintendent of police (SSP) of Srinagar Haseeb Mughal told reporters here. The SSP identified the arrested terrorists as Mushtaq, Junaid and Latief. Mughal said the three belonged to JeM and were involved in the attack on the Chanapora police post in which a sentry was injured. They had also made a failed attempt to snatch his rifle. “We collected the digital evidence and strengthened the intelligence grid after the attack. We focussed on the suspects already on our radar. We picked them up, questioned them and during questioning, one of them confessed and gave us further details about the group, he said. Giving details of the attack, the SSP said the three came to Chanapora on a motorcycle, but left it some distance away from the police post. One of them, named Junaid, went inside the police post with the excuse of tracking the status of passport verification. He checked the place and when he saw that the sentry there had no visible backup, he came out and told his accomplices that perhaps there is no backup for the sentry, so he (sentry) can be targeted. Then he came back to the post and was accompanied by another person named Mushtaq who was wearing a pheran and a helmet. When Mushtaq was asked to remove the pheran for undergoing search, he took out a pistol and fired on the sentry, the SSP said, adding the sentry was injured and is undergoing treatment at SKIMS Hospital at Soura. The senior police official said the terrorists also tried to snatch the rifle of the injured sentry but had to leave it because the gun was clamped with a chain to his belt. In the meantime, the other policemen fired and they fled from the spot, he said. He said police have recovered a Chinese pistol, two magazines and six live rounds from them. The motorcycle has also been recovered, he said, adding further investigations in the case were on. Mughal said Mushtaq, a postgraduate from Kashmir University, was in touch with a JeM cadre, named Sameer from Pulwama district of south Kashmir, and has been associated with the group for about a year. “Sameer and Mushtaq were classmates in KU. It was on Sameer’s direction that they tried to loot weapons in Srinagar, he said.
2TennesseeJacksonville32:49190.05 1JacksonvilleHouston20:49180.29 Times when teams clearly should have gone for 22017 NFL season through Week 2 2New OrleansNew England45:04-170.10 2DallasDenver414:24-190.05 Magnitude is the amount that a team’s expected win percentage is improved by making the right decision.Source: ESPN Stats & Information Group. Teams made the correct decision in four of those 16 cases, for a 25 percent rate. (For comparison: Since 2015, regular season and playoffs combined, teams have gone for 2 points 27 percent of the time in “clear go” scenarios.)Of course, a decision being clear-cut doesn’t mean that it matters a whole lot, but note that even among the decisions with the most significant consequences, teams are still making the wrong choices regularly (most likely because of adherence to Dick Vermeil’s rigid and outdated system that leads them to repeat the same mistakes over and over). In particular, the aforementioned scenarios of being down 4, 8, or 11 points late are both quite clear and quite important.Another significant case is when a team scores to pull within 2: Go for 2! This may seem like an obvious one, but since 2015, teams in this situation have chosen to kick the extra point as late as the fourth quarter (once, which is way too many times), and they’ve done so half the time in the third quarter (6 of 12, and still very bad) and 77 percent of the time in the second quarter (10 of 13, and still pretty bad, especially for such an early decision).This season, teams down 4, 8 or 11 late are holding steady at a 0 percent correct rate, having attempted extra points five out of five times when they “clearly” should have gone for it. That means that over the past three season, they’ve gotten these right exactly zero times in 105 chances.On a slightly brighter note, teams have been down 2 points after a touchdown twice this season — both in the third quarter — and they’ve correctly tried to tie the game both times! It’s not quite the revolution — it isn’t really even shots fired. But maybe, just maybe … 1DetroitArizona33:07-21.28✓ 1L.A. ChargersDenver47:00-41.62 2ClevelandBaltimore24:56-80.24 1ClevelandPittsburgh43:36-52.23✓ 1DetroitArizona49:2740.43✓ Before the Super Bowl in February, we published a fairly comprehensive guide for when to go for 2, simplified into one slightly complicated (but very easy to use once you get the hang of it!) chart. In addition to hopefully demystifying how to judge a lot of borderline situations, we identified some fairly clear-cut cases in which NFL coaches should choose to go for 2 but don’t. Ever.My hope, of course, was that teams would read this (or figure it out on their own) and that we’d see an immediate and cataclysmic shift in 2-point strategy — like going for it when down 4, 8, or 11 after scoring a touchdown late (which are not only real cases, but ones that are usually clear-cut and significant). But, alas, no such luck.The logic is pretty simple: If you can estimate your team’s chances of winning with an X point lead/deficit (X points being how many points you are up or down following a touchdown) and your chances of winning with X+1 and X+2, the decision follows from simple arithmetic. In fact, given that 2-point attempts and extra-point attempts taken from the 15-yard line (under the new rules implemented in 2015) now have roughly the same expected point value (both around 0.95 points), the choice is easier than ever. Simply calculate (or estimate):The improvement in win percentage if your point margin changed from X to X+1.The improvement in win percentage if your point margin changed from X+1 to X+2.If the first number is greater, kick the extra point. If the second is, go for 2.Now, you can estimate or intuit these differences on your own on the fly, or you can use a fancy win probability model like we have,1Specifically, a version of the model built by Brian Burke of ESPN’s Stats & Information Group. but the logic is the same.Of course, we’ve taken it a bit further — our chart uses multiple sets of assumptions to create a range for each scenario covering teams that are relatively better or worse at 2-point conversions than our baseline. In case you missed it, here’s the chart:2You should be able to use this chart to pretty accurately assess most decisions you see. If you’re skeptical of the chart, you could intuit your own using the method outlined in that article. 1ChicagoAtlanta47:26-41.33 2PhiladelphiaKansas City40:08-80.05 2ArizonaIndianapolis47:38-41.28 A quick note on reading this chart: It may look a little “loud,” but that’s a feature for looking up scenarios lightning-fast. For a quick approximation, you first look at the minichart corresponding to the point spread (after the touchdown). If the quarter you’re in is shaded bright purple, you probably want to kick; if it’s bright orange, you should probably go for it. If you’re in a rush, you could stop there and be in pretty decent shape.Through the first two weeks of this NFL season, teams have gone for 2 (from the 2-yard line) eight times overall. More importantly, of the 30 times that the numbers say they should have gone for 2, they did so just four times, for a rate of 13 percent. Since 2015, in the regular season and playoffs, teams that should have gone for 2 have done so around 15 percent of the time.Now, of course it’s possible that some teams are better or worse at going for 2 than average, but it isn’t possible that 85 percent of teams are worse than average. I’ve also calculated how often teams should “clearly” go for 2 — meaning situations in which they should go for it even if they are relatively quite bad at 2-point attempts3I set this threshold at a 40 percent expected conversion rate (the same as the bottom of the range lines in the chart above). Or 7.5 percentage points lower than the baseline conversion rate assumption of 47.5 percent. This is a rough best estimate (after discussion with Burke, among others) for how bad teams who are very bad at 2-point conversions actually are). — and there have been 16 such cases through Week 2:4For this season’s scenarios, I’ve analyzed each attempt individually (down to the second), while the chart above is calculated minute by minute, so there may be slight variations between the two. WEEKTEAMOPPONENTQUARTERTIMESCORE AFTER TDMAGNITUDEWENT FOR IT 1N.Y. JetsBuffalo32:00-21.24✓ 1HoustonJacksonville39:09-130.24 1L.A. ChargersDenver48:10-110.43 1BaltimoreCincinnati21:28160.29